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A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is equipped.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Unprepared

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."

New Title Aims to Stir Debate

The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.

"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. They writes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

The journalist considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the opposing arguments."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster must engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."